very cheapNow that we are in the month of June, the early season trends and mirages are largely over and fantasy baseball owners can honestly evaluate where their teams are at with some level of certainty. There are, as always, players who have not lived up to their draft position or name recognition.
Here is my look at a few of the pitchers fantasy owners have likely been left disappointed by to this point in the season, along with the outlook for each going forward.
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado Rockies- Jimenez went through the first two months of 2011 without a win, as he battled control problems and mechanical issues which led to speculation about something being wrong with him physically. He has pitched better lately, with a 3.16 ERA over his last five starts and going at least six innings in all five outings, and got his first win of the season on June 1 against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a complete game shutout. Jimenez will get another shot at the Dodgers in his next scheduled start on Sunday, but this time it will be at home. Overall this season he is 1-6 with a 4.72 ERA, which still leaves him a far cry from his breakout 2010 (19-8, 2.88 ERA).
Outlook: The fact he has pitched better lately should create some optimism for fantasy owners that have held onto Jimenez. As long as he can avoid walking batters in big amounts, his numbers should continue to improve. Wins should eventually come as well, as the Rockies’ offense should provide better run support. Fantasy owners should be happy with Jimenez’s production as long as they do not expect 2010 to repeat itself.
Javier Vazquez, SP, Florida Marlins- Vazquez returned to the National League East for this season after a poor 2010 campaign for the New York Yankees. Given the fact he had arguably his best season in 2009 for the Atlanta Braves (15-10, 2.87 ERA over 219.1 innings), fantasy owners had reason for optimism and Vazquez was an easy pick as a fantasy sleeper. But he got off to a poor start and is 3-5 with a 6.50 ERA over 12 starts (62.1 innings) this season. If not for a solid three start stretch to end May and to start June (2.84 ERA), his numbers would be even worse. Vazquez’s next start is scheduled for Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who he allowed four runs on six hits over six innings against back on June 1 in a no-decision.
Outlook: At this point Vazquez should only be owned in NL-only leagues and perhaps very deep mixed leagues. His track record of durability is nice (10 straight season with at least 198 innings from 2000-2009), but he is nearly 35 years old (June 24) and that workload may be catching up with him. The Marlins’ offense has struggled recently, leading to a change to Eduardo Perez as hitting coach, which also does not bode well for Vazquez and the pitching staff. If owners can buy low on Vazquez in a trade or want to grab him off the waiver wire for added depth, he could be worth taking a look at. But otherwise fantasy owners may want to stay away.
Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers- Greinke missed the first month of the season due to a fractured rib suffered during a pickup basketball game early in spring training. He made his Brewers’ debut on May 4, and allowed at least four runs in three of his first four starts. Greinke has pitched better over his last three starts, going 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA and a 22:5 K/BB ratio over 20 innings, and is now 5-1 with a 4.83 ERA along with a 51:7 K/BB ratio in seven starts (41 innings) this season. His next start is slated for Saturday against the St. Louis Cardinals, who he has yet to face this season.
Outlook: The 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner appears to be hitting his stride recently, and the Brewers and his fantasy owners will need him to keep it up in order to contend. Fantasy owners that hung onto Greinke through his injury and showed patience through his first few starts should get rewarded as the season goes on. The Brewers’ lineup should continue to provide ample run support and give him a nice win total along with excellent peripheral numbers.
Roy Oswalt, SP, Philadelphia Phillies- Oswalt is 3-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 starts this season (56 innings) along with a 33:14 K/BB ratio, so it’s a little hard to call him a disappointment. But fantasy owners certainly expected more to this point in his first full season in Philadelphia. Oswalt did miss some time earlier in the season with a back issue, but he has pitched well in five starts since returning from the disabled list (2.79 ERA) despite only having one win due to lack of run support. He does get a favorable looking matchup in his next start against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, so he may be able to get his first win since April 21 even if the Phillies struggle to score runs for him.
Outlook: Given the talent in the Phillies’ lineup, Oswalt should start to get better run support down the road. His K/9 ratio is down (5.3 from 8.2 last season), but Oswalt should see that improve as long as his back issue is not lingering. Overall there is recent to expect Oswalt to improve all around as the summer goes on and get somewhere close to the level he showed after being acquired by the Phillies in 2010 (7-1, 1.74 ERA in 13 appearances-12 starts).
